TL;DR
AI Futures Project publishes detailed roadmap for trustless US-China AI regulation through chip supply control and monitored data centers, with year-by-year implementation timeline through 2040.
Key Points
- Proposes joint US-China regulatory regime with 98.5% chip tracking via audited 'whitesites' and mutual transparency mechanisms
- Timeline: early 2030s rapid AI scaling, mid-2030s pause at human-genius-level models for alignment research, then deployment of millions of genius-level AIs
- Addresses defection risk through trustless verification technology requiring 1-2 years to develop; assumes 10-year window before untrackable compute becomes feasible
- Includes supplements on verification methods, economics (predicting 150%+ annual GDP growth), epistemics, and implementation details for policy makers
Why It Matters
This is a technical policy document that operationalizes concrete mechanisms (chip supply chains, data center monitoring, verification protocols) for AI governance at scale. For engineers and security researchers, it details real infrastructure requirements and attack surfaces; for policy-adjacent technologists, it provides a concrete baseline for evaluating actual AI policy proposals against a coherent long-term vision rather than reactive regulation.
Source: www.astralcodexten.com